Kavanaugh Debrief

Kavanaugh Debrief


Hi! Happy Tuesday!

Who should you believe: Kavanaugh or Ford?

 I don't know.



One of my throw-away lines with respect to atheism is that religion is for people who cannot accept "I don't know" as an answer. I could brag that a religious inability to accept "I don't know" is due to a lack of humility. But that's not the case. The reason people cannot accept "I don't know" is that "I don't know" is unsatisfying, it doesn't satisfy to provide ground for traction to move forward in life.

But that's not true. I don't know is an actionable and tractable answer, and so I give to you this debrief.

For example, in science a hypothesis starts with "I don't know" as the only actionable answer to the initial hypothesis. The answer is only known after an experiment is run and results analyzed.

So how is "I don't know" actionable with respect to Kavanaugh vs. Ford?

There are three independent axis.
  • Do I need to make a decision?
  • Can I evaluate the evidence?
  • What is the confidence?

Do I Need To Make A Decision?


Does a belief rise to the level of decision making?

First, I use a simple binary question: am I making any decision in my life regarding the outcome of claim? If not, I can just believe "I don't know" because there is nothing riding on the belief.

In the Kavanaugh hearing do I need to personally decide anything based upon whether I believe Kavanaugh or Ford? No. Nothing in my life will be determined by my belief of who's telling the truth here. I don't know is my position.

In other words, I can choose to believe "I don't know" simply because I have no decisions to make based upon that belief.

Now imagine a society based upon this philosophical bent. The public discussion would be, "I don't know who to believe because it doesn't concern me directly." This discussion would be true for everyone except those Senators on that committee deciding whether to confirm Kavanaugh or not. Our politics would certainly be much calmer for it.

Can I Evaluate The Evidence?


Rising to the level of decision making is not the only actionable way forward with "I don't know". The "I don't know" power also applies to evaluation ability; the personal ability to evaluate the testimony.

Both Ford and Kavanaugh gave absolute answers being 100% positive and these answers contradicted each other. Who to believe? The answer to "who" first depends on "how". How do we evaluate if Ford or Kavanaugh are capable of being 100% confident?

I don't know applies here. I don't know how to evaluate them. Why? Because I don't know them. I think this is key for me. For me personally to adequately evaluate either Ford or Kavanaugh's truth telling capability I would need to get to know them far more than I do now. I don't know them. I don't know is actionable based upon an evaluation of the evaluation process itself. The public evidence provided to get to know them was insufficient for me. In my opinion what evidence we had to get to know them was barely enough to register on my truth radar.

I don't know how to evaluate them so then it follows from reason that I don't know is the answer to what they are saying is the truth.

And then there is sex.

I don't know how to evaluate them has extra processing here regarding truth about sex. Everyone lies about sex, especially to themselves. If I ask you if you masturbate will you answer honestly? Under oath of perjury penalty in front of a Senate Judiciary committee? Boys brag about sex. Kavanaugh may have been lying about "Devil's Triangle" not because he did it, but because he didn't. His embarrassment about being a braggart may have caused a truth evaluation: better to lie about the definition than claim I was bragging, which people wouldn't believe.

What Is The Confidence?



I don't know does not have to be all or nothing.

In Fuzzy Logic we are trained to always assign a confidence to things. My confidence is low in this case precisely because I do not know either of them and especially because the topic at hand is sex.

It is worth in your mind and in your mouth to always state confidence. Confidence is not quantifiable so "low, medium, and high" suffice. An appeal to "100%" is an appeal to scientific, quantifiable, empirical results. Given our society depends so much on science then it is understandable for people's desire to use "100%". Confidence is not quantifiable so confidence should not be tied to 100% or any percent, just relative levels.

So, there are two takeaways here for confidence:
1. Always provide a confidence.
2. Always state a relative confidence such as low, medium, or high.

The I don't know amount is simply the inverse of the I know amount. If I have low confidence in what I know then inversely I have high confidence that I don't know.

My experience has been that people get freaked out if one says they have a high confidence in "I don't know".

They shouldn't. 

Debrief


Will the Kavanaugh hearings impact how I vote? Sure. But I'm not a single-issue voter and I'm not a single-vote-cast, voter. How my Senator voted on Kavanaugh is just one vote out of an entire six-years of voting when it comes time to re-elect my Senator.

The biggest threat to Democracy today is over simplified solutions to complicated problems and this includes both single-issue voting and single-vote-cast voting.

If we used the philosophy of "I don't know" as presented here then our public discourse on these matters would be calm, cool, and collected.

Finally, anyone claiming that politicians today acting like children is somehow something new or has reached a new level of childishness has just revealed that they need to straight-away take lessons in American history reading copious amounts of both  Mark Twain and Will Rogers:

"I belong to no organized party. I am a Democrat."
-- Will Rogers
"Our constitution protects aliens, drunks and U.S. Senators."
-- Will Rogers
"I was gratified to be able to answer promptly.  I said, 'I don't know.'"
-- Mark Twain
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself."
-- Mark Twain,


Freethinkers unite!

Freedom!

Party On!

Let's get cracking!

Voluntarily Reject Demagoguery!

Politics as Science!

Demand Irreni World Scale!

Anti-theism is feminism!  

Think disruption!

Empathy for all!

Moral relativity: think it, breath it!

Prove it or lose it!

Conversations equal consensus! 

Welcome to the 21st century!

Scale your empathy, scale the world! 

Find your tribe!

Be sexy people!

The future is coming! 

Innovate at a rapid pace!

Slow speed ahead!

Well come! and well met!



 










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